College Football Week 11: Detailed Game Analysis, Betting Insights, and Top Picks
Week 11 brings a thrilling lineup of college football matchups that could reshape playoff prospects. With in-depth breakdowns for each game, here’s the lowdown on where the best value bets lie—and my top picks of the week.
Alabama (No. 11) at LSU (No. 14)
Time: 7:30 p.m. ET, Saturday, Nov. 9
Location: Tiger Stadium, Baton Rouge, LA
Betting Line: Alabama -2.5
Over/Under: 58.5
Game Analysis: Both Alabama and LSU are playing to keep slim playoff hopes alive, each carrying two losses into this high-stakes game. Alabama’s defense has struggled against big passing plays, which could benefit LSU’s pass-heavy approach led by Garrett Nussmeier, who averages over 300 yards per game. Alabama’s offense, led by Jalen Milroe, has been inconsistent but can exploit LSU’s shaky defense, which has allowed opponents to score 30+ points in multiple games.
Lien: Alabama -2.5
Rationale: Alabama has a history of handling tough SEC games under pressure. Nick Saban’s experience in high-stakes games, coupled with Alabama’s depth, should give them the edge. This narrow spread provides excellent value for a Crimson Tide win.
Georgia (No. 2) at Ole Miss (No. 16)
Time: 3:30 p.m. ET, Saturday, Nov. 9
Location: Vaught-Hemingway Stadium, Oxford, MS
Betting Line: Georgia -1
Over/Under: 54
Game Analysis: Georgia’s undefeated streak faces a significant test here. Carson Beck’s recent struggles with turnovers, including five interceptions over the past two games, add pressure to the Bulldogs. Ole Miss’s QB Jaxson Dart leads one of the top-ranked offenses, averaging over 500 yards per game. With the Rebels boasting a potent passing game and Georgia’s defensive vulnerabilities, Ole Miss could leverage their home-field advantage.
Lien: Ole Miss +1
Rationale: Georgia’s recent turnover issues combined with Ole Miss’s efficient offense make the Rebels a strong play, especially with points in their favor. Ole Miss at home in a near-even spread could produce an upset, making this bet valuable.
Indiana (No. 8) vs. Michigan
Time: 3:30 p.m. ET, Saturday, Nov. 9
Location: Memorial Stadium, Bloomington, IN
Betting Line: Indiana -14.5
Over/Under: 48.5
Game Analysis: Indiana has been dominant, remaining undefeated with an offense averaging over 450 yards per game. Michigan’s season has been marred by offensive struggles, and they’ve failed to score over 20 points in several games this season. Indiana’s defense has allowed fewer than 20 points per game, so Michigan will face a tough test on both sides of the ball.
Lien: Indiana -14.5
Rationale: Indiana’s momentum and Michigan’s inability to sustain scoring drives make a cover likely. Indiana’s offense should apply early pressure, creating separation quickly. The Hoosiers have a strong chance to cover this large spread.
Iowa State (No. 17) at Kansas
Time: 2:30 p.m. ET, Saturday, Nov. 9
Location: Arrowhead Stadium, Kansas City, MO
Betting Line: Iowa State -2.5
Over/Under: 51
Game Analysis: Iowa State’s defense is one of the best in the Big 12, allowing an impressive 15.5 points per game, while Kansas has been inconsistent offensively. Though Kansas has historically given Iowa State trouble, their current form suggests otherwise. Iowa State’s solid defensive front should slow Kansas down, especially with Kansas scoring under 20 points in recent games.
Lien: Iowa State -2.5
Rationale: Iowa State’s defensive prowess gives them the upper hand here. Their ability to control the pace and limit Kansas’s scoring opportunities makes them a strong pick to cover.
Florida at Texas (No. 5)
Time: Noon ET, Saturday, Nov. 9
Location: Darrell K Royal–Texas Memorial Stadium, Austin, TX
Betting Line: Texas -21.5
Over/Under: 47.5
Game Analysis: Texas remains a playoff contender and needs a dominant win here. Florida, potentially down to a third-string QB, is facing a Texas defense that has allowed an average of 16 points per game. Texas’s offense, led by Quinn Ewers, has been explosive, and they should easily capitalize on Florida’s defense, which has allowed over 30 points in three of their last four games.
Lien: Over 47.5
Rationale: Texas’s high-powered offense should push this game over the relatively low total. With Florida’s defense struggling, Texas should be able to reach the over, even if they carry most of the scoring load.
Purdue at Ohio State (No. 3)
Location: Ohio Stadium, Columbus, OH
Betting Line: Ohio State -38
Over/Under: 53
Game Analysis: Ohio State has been on fire, and Purdue has been on the opposite end with a seven-game losing streak. Ohio State’s offense, averaging over 40 points per game, should have no problem moving the ball against a struggling Purdue defense.
Lien: Ohio State -38
Rationale: The Buckeyes should cover comfortably in this blowout. Ohio State’s offensive firepower, coupled with Purdue’s defensive lapses, suggests a lopsided game, making a cover likely.
Miami (No. 4) at Georgia Tech
Time: 7 p.m. ET, Saturday, Nov. 9
Location: Bobby Dodd Stadium, Atlanta, GA
Betting Line: Miami -10.5
Over/Under: 63.5
Game Analysis: Miami has squeaked by in several games, often letting weaker opponents stay close. Georgia Tech has shown flashes of competitiveness, especially on defense, and could exploit Miami’s inconsistency.
Lien: Under 63.5
Rationale: Miami has had a tendency to allow less competitive teams to stay within reach due to some defensive lapses. Georgia Tech has shown moments of defensive strength, and with Miami’s habit of close games, this matchup may not produce the high-scoring game the total suggests.
Maryland at Oregon (No. 1)
Time: 7 p.m. ET, Saturday, Nov. 9
Location: Autzen Stadium, Eugene, OR
Betting Line: Oregon -24.5
Over/Under: 58.5
Game Analysis: Oregon remains undefeated and highly efficient, while Maryland’s defense has struggled to contain high-powered offenses. Oregon’s offense, which ranks among the best, should find success early and often.
Lien: Oregon -24.5
Rationale: Oregon’s pace and efficiency at home make this an attractive cover, as Maryland’s defense is unlikely to keep up. Expect Oregon to win comfortably.
Washington at Penn State (No. 6)
Time: 8 p.m. ET, Saturday, Nov. 9
Location: Beaver Stadium, State College, PA
Betting Line: Penn State -12.5
Over/Under: 46.5
Game Analysis: Penn State’s defense ranks among the best, allowing only 12 points per game. Washington’s offense has been inconsistent, and the Beaver Stadium atmosphere will be challenging for them to handle.
Lien: Penn State -12.5
Rationale: Penn State’s defense and the home crowd give them a strong chance to cover comfortably. Washington’s struggles against strong defenses make Penn State a safe pick.
Mississippi State at Tennessee (No. 7)
Time: 7 p.m. ET, Saturday, Nov. 9
Location: Neyland Stadium, Knoxville, TN
Betting Line: Tennessee -24.5
Over/Under: 62
Game Analysis: Tennessee’s explosive offense has been formidable at home, but they may look ahead to next week’s big game against Georgia. Mississippi State’s competitive play against tough teams could allow them to stay close.
Lien: Mississippi State +24.5
Rationale: Tennessee’s potential to look ahead and Mississippi State’s competitive edge make this a solid underdog play. Mississippi State should cover the spread.
Florida State at Notre Dame (No. 10)
Time: 7:30 p.m. ET, Saturday, Nov. 9
Location: Notre Dame Stadium, South Bend, IN
Betting Line: Notre Dame -26
Over/Under: 42.5
Game Analysis: Notre Dame is riding a six-game win streak, while Florida State has struggled offensively. This matchup leans heavily in favor of a dominant Notre Dame win.
Lien: Notre Dame -26
Rationale: Florida State’s limited scoring potential makes a strong case for Notre Dame covering. Expect a lopsided game with the Irish cruising to a cover.
BYU (No. 9) at Utah
Time: 10:15 p.m. ET, Saturday, Nov. 9
Location: Rice-Eccles Stadium, Salt Lake City, UT
Betting Line: BYU -3
Over/Under: 40
Game Analysis: Utah’s offense has been hampered by injuries, while BYU’s undefeated record gives them the edge in this rivalry. BYU’s efficiency on both sides should help them maintain control.
Lien: BYU -3
Rationale: Utah’s offensive limitations position BYU well to cover this narrow spread. Look for BYU to extend their unbeaten streak.
Top Picks for the Week
Alabama -2.5 – Reliable in close SEC matchups.
Indiana -14.5 – High-powered offense against a struggling Michigan.
Penn State -12.5 – Strong defense and home-field advantage.
Enjoy the games and best of luck with your bets!
